Ajman 0-0 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajman host Al-Wasl FC at Ajman Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ajman — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ajman Stadium, Ajman have gone 3W 1D 1L this season (5 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ajman are significantly better at Ajman Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's away record: 2W 2D 1L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ajman at 1.40 PPG versus Al-Wasl FC's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ajman register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Wasl FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Ajman in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 40% versus Al-Wasl FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajman 40% | Al-Wasl FC 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.31 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.014 / defence 1.114 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.862 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.387. Al-Wasl FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Ajman games / 10 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 34% | Draw 31% | Al-Wasl FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Wasl FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Wasl FC at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 60% | Al-Wasl FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 34% | Draw 31% | Al-Wasl FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Ajman 1.31 / Al-Wasl FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.014 / def 1.114 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.862 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Wasl FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 December 2021 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Ajman 0 - 0 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 34% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ajman and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Wasl FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajman and Al-Wasl FC in?
Ajman (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ajman's attack at 1.01x the league average against Al-Wasl FC's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
34%
2.96
31%
3.20
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.64
1.33
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Ajman and 1.33 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Ajman have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 4W 2D 4L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.40 PPG, Al-Wasl FC on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ajman have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Ajman are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.10 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Ajman's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Ajman or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Al-Wasl FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2024, when Al-Wasl FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ajman
4
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 2, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Ajman 1-3 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 60%, Al-Wasl FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ajman) and 40% (Al-Wasl FC).
On the defensive side: Ajman keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ajman's games and 60% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ajman's recent games and 40% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ajman's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman and Al-Wasl FC finished level at 0-0 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.31 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ajman fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Wasl FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 34% | Draw 31% | Al-Wasl FC 35%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 40%, Al-Wasl FC 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.40 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.