Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zorya Luhansk host Lviv at Slavutych-Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zorya Luhansk have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 2L across 9 games at Slavutych-Arena this term (2.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Slavutych-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lviv — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Zorya Luhansk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Zorya Luhansk, 1 for Lviv and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Lviv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zorya Luhansk trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lviv trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 50% versus Lviv 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 50% | Lviv 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.38 xG and Lviv 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.013 / defence 1.015 | Lviv attack 0.805 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.225. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Zorya Luhansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Zorya Luhansk games / 18 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 46% | Draw 27% | Lviv 27%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Lviv 3.70. Zorya Luhansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zorya Luhansk 22% | Lviv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Slavutych-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 46% | Draw 27% | Lviv 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.38 / Lviv 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.013 / def 1.015 | Lviv attack 0.805 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lviv xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Slavutych-Arena.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Slavutych-Arena.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 46% chance of winning, Lviv a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Zorya Luhansk 0W | Draws 0 | Lviv 1W.
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Lviv in?
Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (1.01) and Lviv's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.68
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.38
1.00
Lviv xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 1.00 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zorya Luhansk come into this having played 18 games, going 11W 3D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lviv sit at 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zorya Luhansk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zorya Luhansk's home form reads 6W 1D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Lviv have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zorya Luhansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Lviv in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 11W 3D 4L in their last 18 games (2.00 PPG), while Lviv have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or Lviv away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 2.38 PPG; Lviv away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lviv in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Zorya Luhansk go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Zorya Luhansk
0
Draws
1
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Zorya Luhansk have won 2, Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Zorya Luhansk 3-1 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and Lviv?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zorya Luhansk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 25%, Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Zorya Luhansk) and 38% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zorya Luhansk play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 50% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 38% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Zorya Luhansk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Slavutych-Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Zorya Luhansk and Lviv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.38 xG and Lviv 1.00 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Lviv attack 0.81 / defence 1.24, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 46% | Draw 27% | Lviv 27%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 50%, Lviv 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lviv's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.