Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava and Zorya Luhansk meet at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Zorya Luhansk (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Zorya Luhansk have posted 5W 2D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.89 PPG. They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Vorskla Poltava, 2.20 for Zorya Luhansk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Vorskla Poltava, 1 for Zorya Luhansk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Zorya Luhansk half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 50% versus Zorya Luhansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 44% | Zorya Luhansk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.57 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.171 / defence 1.050 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.151 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.219. Zorya Luhansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Vorskla Poltava games / 18 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 40% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 36%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Zorya Luhansk 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 40% | Zorya Luhansk 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 40% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.57 / Zorya Luhansk 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.171 / def 1.050 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.151 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Zorya Luhansk xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 40% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Zorya Luhansk?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 0W | Draws 0 | Zorya Luhansk 1W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Zorya Luhansk in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 1.17x the league average against Zorya Luhansk's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zorya Luhansk's attack (1.15x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
40%
2.50
24%
4.15
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
3.04
1.47
Zorya Luhansk xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.47 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 9W 6D 3L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zorya Luhansk's form line: 11W 3D 4L from 18 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 2.00 for Zorya Luhansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L).
On the road, Zorya Luhansk have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 2.06 scored and 1.06 conceded. Zorya Luhansk's attacking output running into Vorskla Poltava's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Zorya Luhansk in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 11W 3D 4L in their last 18 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 2.22 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Zorya Luhansk have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zorya Luhansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Vorskla Poltava
0
Draws
7
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Zorya Luhansk?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 0, Zorya Luhansk have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 33%, Zorya Luhansk 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vorskla Poltava) and 67% (Zorya Luhansk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Zorya Luhansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Vorskla Poltava's games and 78% of Zorya Luhansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 67% of Zorya Luhansk's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vorskla Poltava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 21, as Vorskla Poltava and Zorya Luhansk drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.57 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.47 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Zorya Luhansk landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.17 / defence 1.05 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.15 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 40% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 36%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 44%, Zorya Luhansk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.83 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.