Vorskla Poltava 0-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava host Ruh Lviv at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Ruh Lviv's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Vorskla Poltava's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vorskla Poltava, 2 for Ruh Lviv and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 50% versus Ruh Lviv 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 50% | Ruh Lviv 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.27 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.927 / defence 1.281 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.213 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.247. Ruh Lviv have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Vorskla Poltava games / 34 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 25% | Draw 22% | Ruh Lviv 53%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Ruh Lviv 1.89. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 50% | Ruh Lviv 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 25% | Draw 22% | Ruh Lviv 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.27 / Ruh Lviv 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.927 / def 1.281 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.213 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Ruh Lviv xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 25% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
Record (6 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 3 | Ruh Lviv 2W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
25%
4.02
22%
4.53
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
3.20
1.94
Ruh Lviv xG
4.02
25%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
4%
27.87
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.94 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 7D 16L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 15W 13D 6L from 34 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ruh Lviv are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vorskla Poltava.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (5W 3D 9L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 8W 5D 4L from 17 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.68 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 11W 7D 16L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 13D 6L in their last 34 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.06 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
4
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
From 8 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 59%, Ruh Lviv 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Vorskla Poltava) and 53% (Ruh Lviv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv in 35%; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Ruh Lviv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Vorskla Poltava's games and 59% of Ruh Lviv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 53% of Ruh Lviv's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vorskla Poltava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.27 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.94 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ruh Lviv landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.93 / defence 1.28 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.21 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 25% | Draw 22% | Ruh Lviv 53%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, Ruh Lviv 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.