Vorskla Poltava 2-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Vorskla Poltava welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vorskla Poltava at 0.70 PPG versus Obolon'-Brovar's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Obolon'-Brovar 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 50% versus Obolon'-Brovar 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 53% | Obolon'-Brovar 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.13 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.939 / defence 1.457 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.879 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.243. Data: 32 Vorskla Poltava games / 32 Obolon'-Brovar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 27% | Draw 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 48%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Obolon'-Brovar 2.08. Obolon'-Brovar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Obolon'-Brovar as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 60% | Obolon'-Brovar 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 27% | Draw 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.13 / Obolon'-Brovar 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.939 / def 1.457 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.879 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Obolon'-Brovar xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 27% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (2 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 2W | Draws 0 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Obolon'-Brovar's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
27%
3.71
25%
4.01
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.72
1.59
Obolon'-Brovar xG
3.71
27%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
5%
18.22
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.59 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 6D 16L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 0.94 PPG from 32 outings (6W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vorskla Poltava on 1.12 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 4W 3D 9L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 0.75 points per game from 16 outings (2W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.62 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 10W 6D 16L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 6W 12D 14L in their last 32 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 0.94 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
0
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 4 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 62%, Obolon'-Brovar 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Vorskla Poltava) and 38% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 31% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Obolon'-Brovar 2-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.13 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.59 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Obolon'-Brovar landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.94 / defence 1.46 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 27% | Draw 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 48%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 53%, Obolon'-Brovar 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.12 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vorskla Poltava win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.