Vorskla Poltava 2-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.

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Analysis

LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho to face Vorskla Poltava in Premier League (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 11:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Vorskla Poltava have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

LNZ Cherkasy's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

LNZ Cherkasy away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, LNZ Cherkasy are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2024, ended Vorskla Poltava 0–1 LNZ Cherkasy — a LNZ Cherkasy win.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 49% versus LNZ Cherkasy 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 46% | LNZ Cherkasy 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.22 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.822 / defence 1.144 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.051 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.048. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 1.256 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vorskla Poltava's projected output up. Data: built from Vorskla Poltava's last 43 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 43.

Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 37%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.87 | Draw 3.53 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vorskla Poltava 40% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 80% (last 10 away games).

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