Veres Rivne 1-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Veres Rivne host FC Kharkiv at Stadion Avangard in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Veres Rivne have posted 1W 2D 7L at Stadion Avangard — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Veres Rivne 0.70 PPG, FC Kharkiv 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Veres Rivne have won 2, FC Kharkiv 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 4–1 with Veres Rivne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 40% versus FC Kharkiv 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 40% | FC Kharkiv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.18 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.900 / defence 1.248 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.844 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.206. Data: 43 Veres Rivne games / 43 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 34% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 38%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | FC Kharkiv 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 50% | FC Kharkiv 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Avangard • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 34% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Veres Rivne 1.18 / FC Kharkiv 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.900 / def 1.248 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.844 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.27
FC Kharkiv xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stadion Avangard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Veres Rivne 1 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avangard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 34% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
Record (2 meetings): Veres Rivne 2W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Veres Rivne's attack at 0.90x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
34%
2.92
27%
3.67
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.45
1.27
FC Kharkiv xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.27 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 12W 11D 20L from 43 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 19L across 43 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 1.09 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 5W 7D 9L from 21 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 4W 9D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.86 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 12W 11D 20L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.05 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Kharkiv go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Kharkiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Veres Rivne
0
Draws
3
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 43%, FC Kharkiv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Veres Rivne and 33% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 33%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 38% of games; FC Kharkiv in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Veres Rivne defy the odds to beat FC Kharkiv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat FC Kharkiv 1-0 at Stadion Avangard, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.18 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.27 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Kharkiv landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 34% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 38%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Veres Rivne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 40%, FC Kharkiv 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.09 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.