Veres Rivne 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Avanhard plays host to Veres Rivne versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Monday 9 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Veres Rivne have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Avanhard this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
LNZ Cherkasy arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Veres Rivne 2W, LNZ Cherkasy 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Veres Rivne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 47% versus LNZ Cherkasy 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 45% | LNZ Cherkasy 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 0.86 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.979 / defence 1.026 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.133 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.174. LNZ Cherkasy's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Veres Rivne games / 48 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 24% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 49%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.04. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Avanhard • Kick-off: Monday 9 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 24% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Veres Rivne 0.86 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.979 / def 1.026 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.133 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.36
LNZ Cherkasy xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 9 March 2026 at Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Veres Rivne 0 - 3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 24% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (5 meetings): Veres Rivne 2W | Draws 2 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.98) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (1.13x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
24%
4.23
28%
3.60
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.23
1.36
LNZ Cherkasy xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
6%
16.56
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.7 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.36 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 14W 15D 18L from 47 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 17L across 47 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Veres Rivne against 1.40 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 8W 8D 7L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 8W 7D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.00 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 14W 15D 18L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 18W 12D 17L in their last 47 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.39 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: LNZ Cherkasy won 0-3 on 9 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Veres Rivne
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 7 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 61%, LNZ Cherkasy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Veres Rivne and 26% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 39%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 26% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 44% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 26% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant LNZ Cherkasy run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Veres Rivne 0-3 at Avanhard, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 0.86 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.36 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 0.9 short of their projected output. LNZ Cherkasy outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.13 / defence 0.73, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 24% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 49%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 45%, LNZ Cherkasy 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.21 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.