SK Poltava 1-2 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Poltava host Ruh Lviv at Zirka Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 December 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, SK Poltava have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Poltava at Zirka Stadium this season: 1W 1D 5L from 7 home games — 0.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ruh Lviv — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SK Poltava have won 0, Ruh Lviv 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Poltava trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 60% versus Ruh Lviv 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 67% | Ruh Lviv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.69 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.741 / defence 1.510 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.691 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.286. SK Poltava's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 SK Poltava games / 45 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Poltava 19% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 52%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Ruh Lviv 1.92. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 43% | Ruh Lviv 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Zirka Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Poltava 19% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG SK Poltava 0.69 / Ruh Lviv 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: SK Poltava attack 0.741 / def 1.510 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.691 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
SK Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Ruh Lviv xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Zirka Stadium.
What was the final score in SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
SK Poltava 1 - 2 Ruh Lviv.
Where is SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Zirka Stadium.
What competition is SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv part of?
SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives SK Poltava a 19% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both SK Poltava and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): SK Poltava 0W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are SK Poltava and Ruh Lviv in?
SK Poltava (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SK Poltava's attack rating (0.74) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus SK Poltava's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
19%
5.29
29%
3.44
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
SK Poltava xG
Total xG
2.03
1.34
Ruh Lviv xG
5.29
19%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
5%
20.21
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 17.6 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are SK Poltava and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for SK Poltava and 1.34 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SK Poltava come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 3D 10L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for SK Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (5W 1D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of SK Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SK Poltava's home form reads 1W 1D 5L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Ruh Lviv have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Poltava are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.87 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Poltava have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Poltava
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Poltava and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
SK Poltava have gone 2W 3D 10L in their last 15 games (0.60 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 5W 1D 9L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Poltava at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Poltava at home: 0.57 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SK Poltava
0
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
From 2 meetings on record, SK Poltava have won 0, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Poltava and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when SK Poltava 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between SK Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ruh Lviv see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — SK Poltava 43% BTTS, Ruh Lviv 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 57% for SK Poltava and 0% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv in 43%; SK Poltava have failed to score in 43% of games; Ruh Lviv in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Poltava home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Poltava play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of SK Poltava's recent matches and 0% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of SK Poltava's recent games and 0% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Poltava and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
SK Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out SK Poltava 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat SK Poltava 1-2 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.69 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.34 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.74 / defence 1.51 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.69 / defence 0.82, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 19% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 52%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 67%, Ruh Lviv 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Poltava's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.