SK Poltava 0-4 Polessya – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Polessya at 81% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs Polessya encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

SK Poltava welcome Polessya to Zirka Stadium in Premier League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 10 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, SK Poltava have gone 1W 1D 8L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

SK Poltava's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.

Polessya — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Polessya away from home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Polessya — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, SK Poltava have won 0, Polessya 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended SK Poltava 0–4 Polessya — a Polessya win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SK Poltava trading profile (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 41% of games.

Polessya trading profile (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 54% versus Polessya 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 68% | Polessya 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.75 xG and Polessya 2.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.805 / defence 1.771 | Polessya attack 1.349 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.212. Polessya bring a tight defence (rating 0.771, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SK Poltava's projected output down. Polessya have an above-average attack rating of 1.349, which lifts their away xG to 2.90. SK Poltava's defence rating of 1.771 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Polessya's projected output up. Data: built from SK Poltava's last 22 games and Polessya's last 52.

Result probabilities: SK Poltava 7% | Draw 12% | Polessya 81%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 14.79 | Draw 8.22 | Polessya 1.23. The model has a clear lean to Polessya (81%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SK Poltava's last 10 home games and Polessya's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Poltava 50% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 30% (last 10 away games).

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