Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shakhtar Donetsk face FC Kharkiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Kharkiv make the trip to Arena Lviv to face Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Lviv, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv.
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Shakhtar Donetsk's favour (2.60 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Shakhtar Donetsk, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against FC Kharkiv — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Shakhtar Donetsk a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
FC Kharkiv — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 38% versus FC Kharkiv 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | FC Kharkiv 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.594 / defence 0.784 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.104 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.177. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.594 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 18 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 23%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | FC Kharkiv 4.35. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | FC Kharkiv 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 / FC Kharkiv 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.594 / def 0.784 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.104 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 50% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv?
Record (6 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 4W | Draws 2 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking strength (1.59x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (1.10x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 49/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
50%
1.98
26%
3.83
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.63
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
5%
21.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.02 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 21 games, going 14W 6D 1L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (10W 8D 3L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 8W 1D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 1.90 points per game from 10 outings (5W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.48 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.19 scored and 0.62 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's scoring rate against FC Kharkiv's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games; FC Kharkiv in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 14W 6D 1L in their last 21 games (2.29 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 8D 3L in their last 21 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.50 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-7 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
Draws
0
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, FC Kharkiv have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when FC Kharkiv 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 40%, FC Kharkiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 40% (FC Kharkiv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 40%; FC Kharkiv in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 50% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 40% of FC Kharkiv's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out FC Kharkiv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat FC Kharkiv 1-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Kharkiv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.59 / defence 0.78 against FC Kharkiv attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 49/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 23%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 52%, FC Kharkiv 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.81. Form held, and they took the win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.