Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk host LNZ Cherkasy at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shakhtar Donetsk — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Shakhtar Donetsk are significantly better at Arena Lviv than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Shakhtar Donetsk are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 67% versus LNZ Cherkasy 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | LNZ Cherkasy 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.07 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.090 / defence 0.956 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.720 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.182. Data: 39 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 10 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 26%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | LNZ Cherkasy 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.07 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.090 / def 0.956 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.720 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.81
LNZ Cherkasy xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Shakhtar Donetsk 3 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 40% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.09x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
40%
2.53
34%
2.90
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
1.88
0.81
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.81 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 7W 3D 2L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 3W 4D 5L from 12 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against LNZ Cherkasy.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 0.92 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 3D 2L in their last 12 games (2.00 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.25 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Shakhtar Donetsk 50% BTTS, LNZ Cherkasy 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 25% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 75%; LNZ Cherkasy in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 0% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 25% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat LNZ Cherkasy 3-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.07 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. LNZ Cherkasy landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.72 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 26%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 67%, LNZ Cherkasy 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.