Ruh Lviv 1-2 Metal Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv host Metal Kharkiv at Stadion Ukrajina in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 24 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ruh Lviv haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Stadion Ukrajina: 3W 4D 1L from 8 Premier League appearances (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Ukrajina. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Stadion Ukrajina than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.36 xG and Metal Kharkiv 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.997 / defence 0.990 | Metal Kharkiv attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 0.884. Data: 17 Ruh Lviv games / 0 Metal Kharkiv games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 28% | Metal Kharkiv 20%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Metal Kharkiv 5.00. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Ukrajina • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 28% | Metal Kharkiv 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.36 / Metal Kharkiv 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.997 / def 0.990 | Metal Kharkiv attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.190 / away 0.884 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Metal Kharkiv xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 24 August 2022 at Stadion Ukrajina.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 2 Metal Kharkiv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukrajina.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 52% chance of winning, Metal Kharkiv a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Metal Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Metal Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Metal Kharkiv in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.00) and Metal Kharkiv's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Metal Kharkiv's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.58
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.11
0.74
Metal Kharkiv xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
5%
19.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Metal Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.74 for Metal Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Pre-Season
Metal Kharkiv
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Metal Kharkiv runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
1
Metal Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Metal Kharkiv?
From 2 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Metal Kharkiv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Metal Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Metal Kharkiv 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Metal Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Metal Kharkiv defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metal Kharkiv beat Ruh Lviv 1-2 at Stadion Ukrajina, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.36 xG and Metal Kharkiv 0.74 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Metal Kharkiv outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Metal Kharkiv attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 17/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 28% | Metal Kharkiv 20%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Metal Kharkiv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.