Ruh Lviv 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours LNZ Cherkasy (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ruh Lviv face LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ruh Lviv welcome LNZ Cherkasy to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. LNZ Cherkasy's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, LNZ Cherkasy have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Ruh Lviv.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
It is worth noting that LNZ Cherkasy have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ruh Lviv 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.74 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.943 / defence 1.297 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.256 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.203. LNZ Cherkasy's defence strength of 0.674 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. LNZ Cherkasy have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Ruh Lviv games / 50 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 13% | Draw 21% | LNZ Cherkasy 66%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 7.69 | Draw 4.76 | LNZ Cherkasy 1.52. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 60% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 13% | Draw 21% | LNZ Cherkasy 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 45% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.74 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.943 / def 1.297 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.256 / def 0.674 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 13% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 66% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (5 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 4W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.94) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
13%
7.67
21%
4.78
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.70
1.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
7.67
13%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
14%
7.10
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
2%
54.44
32%
3.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.96 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 15W 12D 23L from 50 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 17L across 50 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.14 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 9W 7D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.06 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 21W 12D 17L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.12 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
5
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 42%, LNZ Cherkasy 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ruh Lviv) and 29% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 42%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 42% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 29% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Ruh Lviv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Ruh Lviv 1-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.74 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.96 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.94 / defence 1.30 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.26 / defence 0.67, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 13% | Draw 21% | LNZ Cherkasy 66%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 30%, LNZ Cherkasy 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.14 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.