Ruh Lviv 4-2 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 44%, yet in-form Kudrivka provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv host Kudrivka at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena Lviv than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Kudrivka have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kudrivka have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kudrivka are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Kudrivka in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 36% versus Kudrivka 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 36% | Kudrivka 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.43 xG and Kudrivka 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.827 / defence 1.292 | Kudrivka attack 0.633 / defence 1.547. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.361. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.547 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Ruh Lviv games / 12 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 44% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 29%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Kudrivka 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kudrivka (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 60% | Kudrivka 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 44% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.43 / Kudrivka 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.827 / def 1.292 | Kudrivka attack 0.633 / def 1.547 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Kudrivka xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka?
Ruh Lviv 4 - 2 Kudrivka.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 44% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kudrivka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kudrivka in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Kudrivka (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Kudrivka's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Kudrivka's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.80
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.55
1.11
Kudrivka xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.11 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 2W 2D 10L from 14 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kudrivka, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 7L across 14 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kudrivka by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kudrivka's away record stands at 1W 0D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kudrivka's season.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.21 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 2D 10L in their last 14 games (0.57 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Kudrivka away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 0.50 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Kudrivka runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kudrivka?
From 2 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Kudrivka have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Kudrivka 2-1 Ruh Lviv.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 67%, Kudrivka 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Ruh Lviv and 50% for Kudrivka. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 33% of games; Kudrivka in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 33% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Ruh Lviv's matches and 50% of Kudrivka's.
Do Ruh Lviv and Kudrivka tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Kudrivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Kudrivka 4-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.43 xG and Kudrivka 1.11 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Ruh Lviv beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kudrivka outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.83 / defence 1.29 against Kudrivka attack 0.63 / defence 1.55, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 44% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 29%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 36%, Kudrivka 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Kudrivka's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kudrivka arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Ruh Lviv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm. Kudrivka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.