Ruh Lviv 5-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Ruh Lviv welcome Inhulets to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ruh Lviv at Arena Lviv this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 0W 3D 1L from 4 Premier League matches — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Inhulets have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.85 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.75. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Inhulets and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 3–0 with Ruh Lviv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ruh Lviv trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Inhulets trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ruh Lviv 50% and Inhulets 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 100% | Inhulets 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.58 xG and Inhulets 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.285 / defence 0.810 | Inhulets attack 0.784 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.216. Ruh Lviv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Ruh Lviv games / 4 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 57% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 18%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Inhulets 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Ruh Lviv (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ruh Lviv 50% | Inhulets 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 57% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.58 / Inhulets 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.285 / def 0.810 | Inhulets attack 0.784 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Inhulets xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Ruh Lviv 5 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 57% chance of winning, Inhulets a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets?
Record (2 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 0 | Inhulets 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Inhulets in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Inhulets (all comps): 0W-3D-1L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 1.28x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
57%
1.77
25%
3.97
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.35
0.77
Inhulets xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
4%
26.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.77 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 0D 2L record — L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inhulets's form line: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ruh Lviv are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Inhulets.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded. Ruh Lviv's scoring rate against Inhulets's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Inhulets in 75%.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Inhulets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
Have Ruh Lviv or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Inhulets in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ruh Lviv have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2024, when Ruh Lviv won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets?
From 4 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Inhulets have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 50%, Inhulets 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Ruh Lviv and 25% for Inhulets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Inhulets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ruh Lviv's games and 75% of Inhulets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Ruh Lviv's matches and 25% of Inhulets's.
Do Ruh Lviv and Inhulets tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ruh Lviv run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Inhulets 5-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.58 xG and Inhulets 0.77 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ruh Lviv beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.28 / defence 0.81 against Inhulets attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 33/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 57% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 18%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 100%, Inhulets 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Inhulets's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ruh Lviv scored 5 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.