Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena L'viv plays host to Ruh Lviv versus FC Mariupol in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 16 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ruh Lviv's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena L'viv: 3W 4D 1L from 8 Premier League appearances (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena L'viv. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
FC Mariupol have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Ruh Lviv's favour (1.00 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ruh Lviv 1W, FC Mariupol 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Ruh Lviv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FC Mariupol half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 41% versus FC Mariupol 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 24% | FC Mariupol 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.35 xG and FC Mariupol 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.883 / defence 1.036 | FC Mariupol attack 0.914 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.222. FC Mariupol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Ruh Lviv games / 18 FC Mariupol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 41% | Draw 27% | FC Mariupol 32%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | FC Mariupol 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 38% | FC Mariupol 67%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 41% | Draw 27% | FC Mariupol 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.35 / FC Mariupol 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.883 / def 1.036 | FC Mariupol attack 0.914 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FC Mariupol xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Arena L'viv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol part of?
Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 41% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ruh Lviv and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and FC Mariupol?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 0 | FC Mariupol 0W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and FC Mariupol in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.88x the league average against FC Mariupol's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Mariupol's attack (0.91x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.73
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.51
1.16
FC Mariupol xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.16 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 6D 7L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Mariupol's form line: 2W 1D 14L from 17 games, 0.41 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ruh Lviv are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Mariupol.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Ruh Lviv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Mariupol have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.41 PPG overall record — FC Mariupol travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.18 scored and 2.53 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
FC Mariupol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 2W 1D 14L in their last 17 (0.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or FC Mariupol away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Mariupol away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
0
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and FC Mariupol?
From 1 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, FC Mariupol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2021, when FC Mariupol 0-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and FC Mariupol?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 38%, FC Mariupol 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ruh Lviv) and 75% (FC Mariupol).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play FC Mariupol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 62% of FC Mariupol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 75% of FC Mariupol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruh Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 25, as Ruh Lviv and FC Mariupol drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.35 xG and FC Mariupol 1.16 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC Mariupol landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against FC Mariupol attack 0.91 / defence 1.39, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 41% | Draw 27% | FC Mariupol 32%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 24%, FC Mariupol 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Mariupol's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.