Polessya 0-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Polessya vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tsentralnyi Stadion plays host to Polessya versus Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Polessya have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Premier League outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Polessya have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ruh Lviv's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.05 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 0.863 / defence 1.150 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.891 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.228. Data: 2 Polessya games / 32 Ruh Lviv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Polessya 31% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 41%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Ruh Lviv 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 31% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Polessya 1.05 / Ruh Lviv 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 0.863 / def 1.150 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.891 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Ruh Lviv xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Polessya vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Polessya 0 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Polessya vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Polessya vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 31% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Polessya and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Ruh Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Polessya and Ruh Lviv in?
Polessya (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Polessya's attack rating (0.86) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.89x) against Polessya's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.55
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.30
1.26
Ruh Lviv xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Polessya and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Polessya and 1.26 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Polessya come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. It's still early in the season for Polessya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Polessya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Polessya are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Ruh Lviv's attacking output running into Polessya's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ruh Lviv in 100%.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Polessya or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Polessya have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Polessya
2
Draws
3
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Ruh Lviv?
From 6 meetings on record, Polessya have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Polessya 2-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Ruh Lviv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Polessya's games and 100% of Ruh Lviv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Polessya vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Polessya's matches and 100% of Ruh Lviv's.
Do Polessya and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out Polessya 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Polessya 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.05 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.26 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Polessya fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 31% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 41%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 50%, Ruh Lviv 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Polessya managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruh Lviv managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.