Polessya 2-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Polessya welcome Oleksandria to Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Friday 8 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Polessya stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Polessya at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Oleksandria have recorded 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 0W 6D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Polessya carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Polessya have won 2, Oleksandria 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Polessya 3–0 Oleksandria — a Polessya win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Oleksandria trading profile (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 46% versus Oleksandria 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 36% | Oleksandria 46%). Note also that Oleksandria surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Polessya recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.69 xG and Oleksandria 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.087 / defence 0.843 | Oleksandria attack 0.839 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.245. Oleksandria's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Polessya's projected output up. Data: built from Polessya's last 56 games and Oleksandria's last 55.
Result probabilities: Polessya 56% | Draw 24% | Oleksandria 19%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 1.77 | Draw 4.12 | Oleksandria 5.18. The model has a clear lean to Polessya (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Polessya are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Polessya 40% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 56% | Draw 24% | Oleksandria 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Polessya 1.69 / Oleksandria 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.087 / def 0.843 | Oleksandria attack 0.839 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Polessya (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Oleksandria xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Polessya vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does Polessya vs Oleksandria kick off?
Polessya vs Oleksandria kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Polessya 2 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Polessya vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Oleksandria part of?
Polessya vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 56% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Polessya and Oleksandria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Polessya vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Polessya's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Oleksandria's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Polessya's last 56 games and Oleksandria's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.12
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.57
0.88
Oleksandria xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
28.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Polessya vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Polessya and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Polessya and 0.88 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Polessya come into this having played 55 games, going 27W 16D 12L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.45 PPG from 55 outings (22W 14D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Polessya on 1.76 PPG, Oleksandria on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Polessya's home form reads 11W 12D 5L across their last 28 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Polessya are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.16 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
Polessya (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Polessya
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Polessya vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are Polessya and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 27W 16D 12L in their last 55 games (1.76 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 22W 14D 19L in their last 55 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Oleksandria away?
Polessya's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.61 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Polessya or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 8 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Polessya have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Polessya won Oleksandria 0-3 Polessya.
Polessya's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Polessya
0
Draws
3
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Polessya vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Oleksandria?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Polessya have won 3, Oleksandria have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 May 2026: Polessya 2-1 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 50%, Oleksandria 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Polessya) and 39% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Polessya keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Polessya have failed to score in 29% of games; Oleksandria in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Polessya vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Polessya and Oleksandria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Polessya's recent matches and 46% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Polessya and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Polessya's recent games and 39% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Oleksandria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Polessya's recent matches and 68% of Oleksandria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out Oleksandria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Oleksandria 2-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.69 xG and Oleksandria 0.88 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.09 / defence 0.84 against Oleksandria attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 56% | Draw 24% | Oleksandria 19%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 36%, Oleksandria 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Polessya 1.76 PPG, Oleksandria 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.