Polessya 0-0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi meet at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Polessya have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's home record at Tsentralnyi Stadion: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 3W 0D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Polessya's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Polessya — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 23% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 38% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.02 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 0.917 / defence 0.638 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.838 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.371. Polessya's defence rating of 0.638 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Polessya games / 12 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 42% | Draw 33% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Polessya if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Polessya 30% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 42% | Draw 33% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Polessya 1.02 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 0.917 / def 0.638 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.838 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Polessya (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Polessya 0 - 0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 42% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Polessya (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Polessya's attack rating (0.92) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack (0.84x) against Polessya's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
42%
2.40
33%
3.05
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Polessya xG
Total xG
1.76
0.73
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 13.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Polessya and 0.73 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Polessya's recent record stands at 7W 3D 3L from 13 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 9L across 13 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Polessya by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Polessya have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.85 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record stands at 3W 0D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.77 PPG overall record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Polessya are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.38 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Polessya have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 62%.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 3W 1D 9L in their last 13 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.33 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Polessya or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Polessya
1
Draws
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, Polessya have won 0, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Polessya see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Polessya) and 33% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Polessya and 33% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
On the defensive side: Polessya keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 33%; Polessya have failed to score in 67% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Polessya's recent matches and 33% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Polessya's recent games and 33% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Polessya's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.02 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.73 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Polessya fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.92 / defence 0.64 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 42% | Draw 33% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 38%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.