Oleksandria 1-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Oleksandria welcome Ruh Lviv to CSC Nika. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria's home record at CSC Nika: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at CSC Nika this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Oleksandria are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 0 for Ruh Lviv and 5 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 40% versus Ruh Lviv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 49% | Ruh Lviv 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.30 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.328 / defence 1.035 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.981 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.120. Oleksandria carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 1.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Oleksandria games / 37 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 39% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 31%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Ruh Lviv 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 50% | Ruh Lviv 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 39% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Oleksandria 1.30 / Ruh Lviv 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.328 / def 1.035 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.981 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ruh Lviv xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Oleksandria 1 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 39% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv?
Record (5 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 5 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (1.33) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.39
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.44
1.14
Ruh Lviv xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.14 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 14W 11D 12L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 15W 16D 6L from 37 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oleksandria on 1.43 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 7W 7D 4L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.54 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Ruh Lviv in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 14W 11D 12L in their last 37 games (1.43 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 16D 6L in their last 37 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.56 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oleksandria's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Oleksandria
7
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv?
From 9 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-3 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 39%, Ruh Lviv 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Oleksandria) and 50% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 39%; Oleksandria have failed to score in 28% of games; Ruh Lviv in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 56% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Oleksandria's recent games and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv finished level at 1-1 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.30 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.14 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.33 / defence 1.03 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 39% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 31%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 49%, Ruh Lviv 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.43 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.