Oleksandria 1-0 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Polessya travel to CSC Nika to take on Oleksandria. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CSC Nika, Oleksandria have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at CSC Nika this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 2.60 PPG, Polessya 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Oleksandria, 1 for Polessya and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Oleksandria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (40 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Polessya in-play and half-time data (40 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 42% versus Polessya 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 48% | Polessya 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.28 xG and Polessya 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.222 / defence 0.968 | Polessya attack 1.400 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.113. Polessya have an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Oleksandria games / 40 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 31% | Draw 27% | Polessya 42%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Polessya 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 70% | Polessya 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 31% | Draw 27% | Polessya 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Oleksandria 1.28 / Polessya 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.222 / def 0.968 | Polessya attack 1.400 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Polessya (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Polessya xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Polessya kick off?
Oleksandria vs Polessya kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Polessya?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 Polessya.
Where is Oleksandria vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Polessya part of?
Oleksandria vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 31% chance of winning, Polessya a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Oleksandria and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Polessya?
Record (2 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 0 | Polessya 1W.
What form are Oleksandria and Polessya in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Polessya (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Oleksandria vs Polessya?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (1.22) and Polessya's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
31%
3.19
27%
3.73
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.79
1.51
Polessya xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.45
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.51 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 16W 12D 12L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya's form line: 20W 12D 8L from 40 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oleksandria on 1.50 PPG, Polessya on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Polessya have gone 10W 4D 4L from 18 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.45 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Polessya in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Polessya in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 16W 12D 12L in their last 40 games (1.50 PPG), while Polessya have gone 20W 12D 8L in their last 40 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.61 PPG; Polessya away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Polessya in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and Polessya runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Polessya won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Oleksandria
0
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 3, Polessya have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Polessya 2-1 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Polessya 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Oleksandria) and 50% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Polessya in 44%; Polessya in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 39% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Oleksandria's recent games and 50% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Polessya tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Polessya in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oleksandria defy the odds to beat Polessya 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Polessya 1-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.28 xG and Polessya 1.51 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Polessya landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.22 / defence 0.97 against Polessya attack 1.40 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 31% | Draw 27% | Polessya 42%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Oleksandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 48%, Polessya 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (40 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Polessya's trading profile (40 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.50 PPG, Polessya 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.