Oleksandria 0-3 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Polessya travel to CSC Nika to take on Oleksandria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at CSC Nika, Oleksandria have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 2W 0D 2L from 4 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Polessya have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Polessya away from home this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 1.30 PPG, Polessya 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
Polessya in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 25% versus Polessya 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 25% | Polessya 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.30 xG and Polessya 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.001 / defence 0.869 | Polessya attack 0.994 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.217. Data: 34 Oleksandria games / 4 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 42% | Draw 28% | Polessya 30%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Polessya 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 50% | Polessya 67%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 42% | Draw 28% | Polessya 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Oleksandria 1.30 / Polessya 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.001 / def 0.869 | Polessya attack 0.994 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Polessya xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Polessya kick off?
Oleksandria vs Polessya kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Polessya?
Oleksandria 0 - 3 Polessya.
Where is Oleksandria vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Polessya part of?
Oleksandria vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 42% chance of winning, Polessya a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Oleksandria and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Polessya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oleksandria and Polessya in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Polessya (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (1.00) and Polessya's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.61
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.35
1.05
Polessya xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.05 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Polessya's form line: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Polessya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oleksandria on 1.75 PPG, Polessya on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Oleksandria have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
Polessya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Polessya in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Polessya have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Oleksandria or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Polessya in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and Polessya runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Polessya won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Oleksandria
0
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 3, Polessya have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Polessya 2-1 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Polessya tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 25%, Polessya 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Oleksandria) and 50% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 50% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Oleksandria's recent games and 50% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Polessya tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Polessya in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Polessya run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Oleksandria 0-3 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.30 xG and Polessya 1.05 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Polessya outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.00 / defence 0.87 against Polessya attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 42% | Draw 28% | Polessya 30%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Polessya win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 25%, Polessya 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.75 PPG, Polessya 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.