Oleksandria 1-4 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host FC Kharkiv at KSK Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KSK Nika. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 1.70 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Oleksandria have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while FC Kharkiv have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2023, ended 3–0 with Oleksandria winning.
The historical record gives Oleksandria a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 60% versus FC Kharkiv 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 60% | FC Kharkiv 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.61 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.188 / defence 0.934 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.732 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 0.993. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Oleksandria games / 2 FC Kharkiv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 60% | Draw 25% | FC Kharkiv 16%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | FC Kharkiv 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Oleksandria (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | FC Kharkiv 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 60% | Draw 25% | FC Kharkiv 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 39% | xG Oleksandria 1.61 / FC Kharkiv 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.188 / def 0.934 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.732 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.099 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.68
FC Kharkiv xG
39%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Oleksandria 1 - 4 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 60% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
Record (5 meetings): Oleksandria 3W | Draws 2 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oleksandria's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
60%
1.67
25%
4.05
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.29
0.68
FC Kharkiv xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
3%
32.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.68 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oleksandria.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oleksandria have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Kharkiv in 20%.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Oleksandria or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2023, when Oleksandria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 60%, FC Kharkiv 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 60% for Oleksandria and 0% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 60%; Oleksandria have failed to score in 40% of games; FC Kharkiv in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 20% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Oleksandria's recent games and 0% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Kharkiv run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Oleksandria 1-4 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.61 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.68 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FC Kharkiv outscored their 0.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.19 / defence 0.93 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 60% | Draw 25% | FC Kharkiv 16%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a FC Kharkiv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 60%, FC Kharkiv 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Kharkiv scored 4 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.