Obolon'-Brovar 0-3 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Obolon'-Brovar welcome Oleksandria to Obolon Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 3W 3D 4L at Obolon Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oleksandria stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Oleksandria away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Obolon'-Brovar at 1.10 PPG versus Oleksandria's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Oleksandria 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 31% versus Oleksandria 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 31% | Oleksandria 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.88 xG and Oleksandria 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.631 / defence 0.892 | Oleksandria attack 1.041 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.193. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.631 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Obolon'-Brovar games / 59 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 29% | Draw 31% | Oleksandria 41%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Oleksandria 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 29% | Draw 31% | Oleksandria 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.88 / Oleksandria 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.631 / def 0.892 | Oleksandria attack 1.041 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Oleksandria xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 3 Oleksandria.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 29% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria?
Record (1 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 1 | Oleksandria 0W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Obolon'-Brovar's attack at 0.63x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
29%
3.49
31%
3.26
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
1.99
1.11
Oleksandria xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 15.2 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.11 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Obolon'-Brovar's recent record stands at 5W 11D 13L from 29 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Oleksandria, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 12L across 29 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Obolon'-Brovar on 0.90 PPG, Oleksandria on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Obolon'-Brovar have managed 3W 6D 5L from 14 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oleksandria's away record stands at 2W 6D 6L across 14 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 0.93 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Current Season
Oleksandria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 5W 11D 13L in their last 29 games (0.90 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 7W 10D 12L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Oleksandria away?
Obolon'-Brovar's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.07 PPG; Oleksandria away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2025, when Oleksandria won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria?
From 5 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Oleksandria have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 29%, Oleksandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 57% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Oleksandria in 36%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 50% of games; Oleksandria in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 50% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 57% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Obolon'-Brovar 0-3 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.88 xG and Oleksandria 1.11 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Oleksandria outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.63 / defence 0.89 against Oleksandria attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 29% | Draw 31% | Oleksandria 41%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 31%, Oleksandria 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 0.90 PPG, Oleksandria 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.