Obolon'-Brovar 1-3 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Obolon Arena plays host to Obolon'-Brovar versus FC Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 12 December 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Obolon'-Brovar's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Obolon Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Obolon'-Brovar, 1.40 for FC Kharkiv — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Obolon'-Brovar lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Obolon'-Brovar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 35% versus FC Kharkiv 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 47% | FC Kharkiv 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.69 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.736 / defence 1.340 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.797 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.266. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Obolon'-Brovar games / 14 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 19% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 53%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | FC Kharkiv 1.89. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | FC Kharkiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 12 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 19% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.69 / FC Kharkiv 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.736 / def 1.340 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.797 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.35
FC Kharkiv xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 12 December 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 3 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 19% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv?
Record (3 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 1W | Draws 2 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Obolon'-Brovar's attack at 0.74x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.80x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 45/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
19%
5.24
28%
3.54
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.04
1.35
FC Kharkiv xG
5.24
19%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
5%
20.26
26%
3.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 17.5 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.35 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Obolon'-Brovar have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 5W 5D 7L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 7W 7D 3L from 17 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Obolon'-Brovar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 4D 1L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.06 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 7W 7D 3L in their last 17 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.12 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Kharkiv go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Kharkiv won 5-0 on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when FC Kharkiv 5-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 25%, FC Kharkiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Obolon'-Brovar and 25% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 38%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 50% of games; FC Kharkiv in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 50% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 25% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Kharkiv cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Obolon'-Brovar 1-3 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.69 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.35 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Kharkiv outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.74 / defence 1.34 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 19% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 53%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 47%, FC Kharkiv 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.