Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar host Kudrivka at in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kudrivka stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Obolon'-Brovar 1.00 PPG, Kudrivka 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Kudrivka 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (37 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (37 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 43% versus Kudrivka 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 49% | Kudrivka 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.87 xG and Kudrivka 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 1.085 / defence 0.915 | Kudrivka attack 0.877 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.141. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Obolon'-Brovar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Obolon'-Brovar games / 39 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 58% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 16%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Kudrivka 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Obolon'-Brovar (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Obolon'-Brovar at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 50% | Kudrivka 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 58% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.87 / Kudrivka 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 1.085 / def 0.915 | Kudrivka attack 0.877 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Kudrivka xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 58% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka?
Record (3 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 2 | Kudrivka 1W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Kudrivka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Obolon'-Brovar's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Kudrivka's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Kudrivka's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
58%
1.73
26%
3.79
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.78
0.92
Kudrivka xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
2%
40.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 0.92 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Obolon'-Brovar have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 7W 14D 16L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kudrivka's form line: 7W 10D 20L from 37 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Obolon'-Brovar on 0.95 PPG, Kudrivka on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (3W 8D 5L).
On the road, Kudrivka have gone 1W 5D 10L from 16 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Obolon'-Brovar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.05 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 7W 14D 16L in their last 37 games (0.95 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 7W 10D 20L in their last 37 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Kudrivka away?
Obolon'-Brovar's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.06 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka?
From 3 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Kudrivka have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kudrivka 0-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka?
Kudrivka have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 44%, Kudrivka 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 44% (Kudrivka).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 38% of games; Kudrivka in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 56% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 44% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Kudrivka tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.