Minai vs Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Minai vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Vorskla Poltava travel to Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova to take on Minai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Minai stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova, Minai have gone 1W 5D 3L this season (9 games, 0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Vorskla Poltava have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vorskla Poltava — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Minai have won 0, Vorskla Poltava 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Minai trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 44% versus Vorskla Poltava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Minai 39% | Vorskla Poltava 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 1.09 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.838 / defence 1.203 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.821 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.221. Data: 18 Minai games / 18 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Minai 33% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 39%. Fair-value odds: Minai 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Vorskla Poltava 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Minai 56% | Vorskla Poltava 62%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 33% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Minai 1.09 / Vorskla Poltava 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.838 / def 1.203 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.821 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Minai xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Vorskla Poltava xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Minai vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Minai vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.
Where is Minai vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.
What competition is Minai vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Minai vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 33% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Minai and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Minai vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): Minai 0W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are Minai and Vorskla Poltava in?
Minai (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Minai's attack rating (0.84) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Minai's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
33%
3.02
28%
3.53
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Minai xG
Total xG
2.30
1.21
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Minai and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Minai and 1.21 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Minai's recent record stands at 1W 7D 10L from 18 games, a 0.56 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 3L across 18 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vorskla Poltava by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Minai heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Minai have managed 0W 5D 3L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Minai are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Minai and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 1W 7D 10L in their last 18 games (0.56 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 0.62 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Minai or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Minai have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Minai's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Minai
1
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Vorskla Poltava?
From 5 meetings on record, Minai have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Vorskla Poltava 2-3 Minai.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 62%, Vorskla Poltava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Minai) and 38% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Minai have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Minai play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Minai's games and 62% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Minai vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Minai's recent games and 38% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Minai have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Minai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Minai and Vorskla Poltava finished level at 0-0 at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 1.09 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.21 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Minai fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 33% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 39%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 39%, Vorskla Poltava 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Minai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.