FC Kharkiv 4-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Veres Rivne travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 April 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Tsentralnyi Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Veres Rivne — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
FC Kharkiv carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Veres Rivne have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for FC Kharkiv.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Veres Rivne winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Veres Rivne have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Kharkiv 32% | Veres Rivne 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 20% | Veres Rivne 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.84 xG and Veres Rivne 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.774 / defence 0.697 | Veres Rivne attack 0.815 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.181. FC Kharkiv's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 22 FC Kharkiv games / 52 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 36% | Veres Rivne 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Veres Rivne 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.51. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.51 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Veres Rivne's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Analysis Verdict
Veres Rivne lead the H2H ledger, but FC Kharkiv carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.51 combined xG gives a 19% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 20% | Veres Rivne 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 36% | Veres Rivne 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG FC Kharkiv 0.84 / Veres Rivne 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.774 / def 0.697 | Veres Rivne attack 0.815 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Veres Rivne xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
FC Kharkiv 4 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 37% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne?
Record (5 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 5W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.77) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
37%
2.72
36%
2.75
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.51
0.67
Veres Rivne xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.60
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.0 | 14.8 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.67 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 1.51.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 12W 9D 4L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne's form line: 6W 9D 10L from 25 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Veres Rivne.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 1.91 PPG from 11 outings (6W 3D 2L).
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 5D 4L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.84 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 12W 9D 4L in their last 25 games (1.80 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Veres Rivne away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.91 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Kharkiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Kharkiv
0
Draws
5
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 3, Veres Rivne have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Kharkiv 18% BTTS, Veres Rivne 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 9% for FC Kharkiv and 36% for Veres Rivne.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 27% of games; Veres Rivne in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 46% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 36% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Kharkiv run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Veres Rivne 4-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.84 xG and Veres Rivne 0.67 xG, a combined 1.51. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Kharkiv beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.77 / defence 0.70 against Veres Rivne attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 36% | Veres Rivne 27%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 24% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 20%, Veres Rivne 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.