FC Kharkiv 2-0 SK Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv host SK Poltava at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 19 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 2L across 9 games at Tsentralnyi Stadion this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, SK Poltava have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Poltava away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, FC Kharkiv have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Kharkiv have won 1, SK Poltava 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with FC Kharkiv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
SK Poltava in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 35% versus SK Poltava 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 25% | SK Poltava 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.46 xG and SK Poltava 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.728 / defence 0.896 | SK Poltava attack 0.861 / defence 1.740. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.217. FC Kharkiv's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SK Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.740 — this is suppressing FC Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 FC Kharkiv games / 20 SK Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 49% | Draw 27% | SK Poltava 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | SK Poltava 4.17. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 22% | SK Poltava 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 49% | Draw 27% | SK Poltava 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.46 / SK Poltava 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.728 / def 0.896 | SK Poltava attack 0.861 / def 1.740 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.94
SK Poltava xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 19 March 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava?
FC Kharkiv 2 - 0 SK Poltava.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava part of?
FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 49% chance of winning, SK Poltava a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Kharkiv and SK Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and SK Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 0 | SK Poltava 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and SK Poltava in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. SK Poltava (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Kharkiv's attack at 0.73x the league average against SK Poltava's defence at 1.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Poltava's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.72
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.40
0.94
SK Poltava xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
6%
17.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and SK Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.94 for SK Poltava, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 20 games, going 9W 7D 4L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SK Poltava sit at 0.45 PPG from 20 outings (2W 3D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for SK Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of SK Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Poltava have taken 0.56 points per game from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; SK Poltava are on 0.80 scored and 2.55 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
SK Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and SK Poltava in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 7D 4L in their last 20 games (1.70 PPG), while SK Poltava have gone 2W 3D 15L in their last 20 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or SK Poltava away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.67 PPG; SK Poltava away: 0.56 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or SK Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, SK Poltava in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and SK Poltava runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
0
Draws
0
SK Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and SK Poltava?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, SK Poltava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and SK Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when FC Kharkiv 2-0 SK Poltava.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and SK Poltava?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 22%, SK Poltava 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 11% (FC Kharkiv) and 78% (SK Poltava).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 33% of games; SK Poltava in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / SK Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play SK Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 67% of SK Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs SK Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 78% of SK Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and SK Poltava tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, SK Poltava in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Kharkiv cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SK Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat SK Poltava 2-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.46 xG and SK Poltava 0.94 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SK Poltava landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.73 / defence 0.90 against SK Poltava attack 0.86 / defence 1.74, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 49% | Draw 27% | SK Poltava 24%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 25%, SK Poltava 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
SK Poltava's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm. SK Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 2.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.