FC Kharkiv 0-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Kryvbas KR travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's home record at Tsentralnyi Stadion: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Premier League appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Kharkiv at 1.60 PPG versus Kryvbas KR's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Kryvbas KR, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for FC Kharkiv.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Kryvbas KR winning.
It is worth noting that Kryvbas KR have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
FC Kharkiv trading profile (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 28% of cases; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Kryvbas KR trading profile (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 44% versus Kryvbas KR 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 22% | Kryvbas KR 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.16 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.842 / defence 1.083 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.048 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.274. Data: 15 FC Kharkiv games / 46 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 30% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Kryvbas KR 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 29% | Kryvbas KR 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 30% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.16 / Kryvbas KR 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.842 / def 1.083 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.048 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Kryvbas KR xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 30% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
Record (5 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 4W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
30%
3.33
26%
3.79
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.60
1.45
Kryvbas KR xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
7%
14.13
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.45 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 7D 3L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.72 PPG, Kryvbas KR on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.67 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR in 61%.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 8W 7D 3L in their last 18 games (1.72 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 8W 6D 4L in their last 18 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Kryvbas KR away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.57 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.57 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
4
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 29%, Kryvbas KR 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (FC Kharkiv) and 71% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 29% of games; Kryvbas KR in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 57% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 71% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Kharkiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.16 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.45 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kryvbas KR landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 15/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 30% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 44%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 22%, Kryvbas KR 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.72 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.