Metal Kharkiv 0-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Metal Kharkiv at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kryvbas KR make the trip to Stadion Avanhard to face Metal Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 14 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Metal Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Metal Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metal Kharkiv's home record at Stadion Avanhard: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kryvbas KR (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Kryvbas KR have posted 0W 1D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Metal Kharkiv against 0.90 for Kryvbas KR. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Metal Kharkiv — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kryvbas KR — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metal Kharkiv 73% versus Kryvbas KR 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metal Kharkiv 54% | Kryvbas KR 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metal Kharkiv 1.28 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metal Kharkiv attack 0.817 / defence 1.286 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.742 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.222. Kryvbas KR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Metal Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Metal Kharkiv games / 11 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metal Kharkiv 39% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 34%. Fair-value odds: Metal Kharkiv 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Kryvbas KR 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Metal Kharkiv are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Metal Kharkiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Metal Kharkiv 60% | Kryvbas KR 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Monday 14 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metal Kharkiv 39% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Metal Kharkiv 1.28 / Kryvbas KR 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Metal Kharkiv attack 0.817 / def 1.286 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.742 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Metal Kharkiv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Metal Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Kryvbas KR xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 14 November 2022 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Metal Kharkiv 0 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Metal Kharkiv a 39% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Metal Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Metal Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metal Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metal Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR in?
Metal Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Metal Kharkiv's attack at 0.82x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (0.74x) against Metal Kharkiv's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metal Kharkiv Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.66
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Metal Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.44
1.17
Kryvbas KR xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Metal Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Metal Kharkiv and 1.17 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Metal Kharkiv's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Metal Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 6L across 11 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Metal Kharkiv by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kryvbas KR heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Metal Kharkiv have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kryvbas KR's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kryvbas KR's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Metal Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Metal Kharkiv are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 0.64 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metal Kharkiv have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metal Kharkiv
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metal Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Metal Kharkiv have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metal Kharkiv at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Metal Kharkiv's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metal Kharkiv at home: 1.00 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Metal Kharkiv
0
Draws
2
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metal Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
From 2 meetings on record, Metal Kharkiv have won 0, Kryvbas KR have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metal Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2023, when Kryvbas KR 2-0 Metal Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Metal Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Metal Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metal Kharkiv 60%, Kryvbas KR 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Metal Kharkiv) and 60% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Metal Kharkiv have failed to score in 40% of games; Kryvbas KR in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metal Kharkiv home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metal Kharkiv play Kryvbas KR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Metal Kharkiv's games and 60% of Kryvbas KR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Metal Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Metal Kharkiv's recent games and 60% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metal Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Metal Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kryvbas KR defy the odds to beat Metal Kharkiv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Metal Kharkiv 0-1 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metal Kharkiv 1.28 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.17 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Metal Kharkiv fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metal Kharkiv attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.74 / defence 1.21, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metal Kharkiv 39% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 34%, with Metal Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Kryvbas KR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metal Kharkiv 54%, Kryvbas KR 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metal Kharkiv's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Metal Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Kryvbas KR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Metal Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.