Lviv 1-3 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lviv face Veres Rivne.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Veres Rivne travel to Stadion SKIF to take on Lviv in Premier League (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 18 October 2022 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lviv stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lviv at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Veres Rivne have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Veres Rivne away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lviv 1.20 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Lviv have won 0, Veres Rivne 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2021, ended Lviv 0–1 Veres Rivne — a Veres Rivne win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lviv in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 50% versus Veres Rivne 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lviv 42% | Veres Rivne 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.01 xG and Veres Rivne 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.891 / defence 1.274 | Veres Rivne attack 0.941 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.258. Lviv's defence rating of 1.274 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Veres Rivne's projected output up. Data: built from Lviv's last 24 games and Veres Rivne's last 25.
Result probabilities: Lviv 25% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 48%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 4.00 | Draw 3.77 | Veres Rivne 2.06. Veres Rivne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lviv 60% (last 10 home games) | Veres Rivne 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 October 2022 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 25% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Lviv 1.01 / Veres Rivne 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.891 / def 1.274 | Veres Rivne attack 0.941 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Veres Rivne xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lviv vs Veres Rivne FAQs
What time does Lviv vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Lviv vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Tuesday 18 October 2022 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Lviv 1 - 3 Veres Rivne.
Where is Lviv vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Lviv vs Veres Rivne part of?
Lviv vs Veres Rivne is a Premier League fixture (matchday 8) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 25% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lviv and Veres Rivne will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Lviv vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lviv's attack rating (0.89) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lviv's last 24 games and Veres Rivne's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
25%
4.00
27%
3.77
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.52
1.51
Veres Rivne xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
6%
18.03
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lviv vs Veres Rivne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lviv and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Lviv and 1.51 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lviv's recent record stands at 5W 7D 12L from 24 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 9L across 24 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Veres Rivne by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lviv heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lviv have managed 1W 4D 7L from their last 12 home games — 0.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Veres Rivne's away record stands at 5W 2D 5L across their last 12 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lviv are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.96 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Veres Rivne in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
Lviv (Home) vs Veres Rivne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lviv
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
❓ Lviv vs Veres Rivne Form FAQs
What form are Lviv and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 games (0.92 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Veres Rivne away?
Veres Rivne's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.58 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Lviv or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 28 April 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Veres Rivne have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
0
Draws
3
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Lviv vs Veres Rivne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Veres Rivne?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Lviv have won 0, Veres Rivne have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Veres Rivne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 April 2023: Veres Rivne 3-2 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 58%, Veres Rivne 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lviv) and 33% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne in 42%; Lviv have failed to score in 42% of games; Veres Rivne in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lviv vs Veres Rivne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lviv and Veres Rivne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Lviv's recent matches and 25% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lviv and Veres Rivne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lviv's recent games and 33% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Veres Rivne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Lviv's recent matches and 67% of Veres Rivne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Veres Rivne cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Lviv 1-3 at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.01 xG and Veres Rivne 1.51 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Veres Rivne outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.89 / defence 1.27 against Veres Rivne attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 25% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 48%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 42%, Veres Rivne 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.