Lviv 2-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Ruh Lviv encounter.

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Analysis

Ruh Lviv make the trip to Stadion SKIF to face Lviv in Premier League (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Thursday 10 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time.

Form

Lviv (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Lviv have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ruh Lviv have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Ruh Lviv arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Ruh Lviv edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2021, ended Lviv 0–1 Ruh Lviv — a Ruh Lviv win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Lviv — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 48% versus Ruh Lviv 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lviv 41% | Ruh Lviv 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.32 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.899 / defence 1.277 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.897 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.237. Lviv's defence rating of 1.277 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ruh Lviv's projected output up. Data: built from Lviv's last 28 games and Ruh Lviv's last 27.

Result probabilities: Lviv 35% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 39%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.85 | Draw 3.91 | Ruh Lviv 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lviv 60% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 30% (last 10 away games).

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