Lviv vs Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lviv vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ruh Lviv make the trip to Stadion Ukrajina to face Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Lviv (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ukrajina, Lviv have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ukrajina this season.
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lviv, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lviv — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 53% versus Ruh Lviv 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lviv 41% | Ruh Lviv 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.12 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.815 / defence 1.223 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.795 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.219. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Lviv games / 17 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 34% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 37%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Ruh Lviv 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lviv 60% | Ruh Lviv 44%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Ukrajina • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 34% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Lviv 1.12 / Ruh Lviv 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.815 / def 1.223 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.795 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Ruh Lviv xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Lviv vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stadion Ukrajina.
Where is Lviv vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukrajina.
What competition is Lviv vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Lviv vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 34% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lviv and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Ruh Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Lviv and Ruh Lviv in?
Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lviv's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.80x) against Lviv's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
34%
2.92
28%
3.53
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.31
1.19
Ruh Lviv xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lviv and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Lviv and 1.19 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lviv's recent record stands at 4W 4D 9L from 17 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 7L across 17 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Lviv against 1.06 for Ruh Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lviv have managed 1W 3D 5L from 9 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ruh Lviv's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lviv are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.94 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Lviv's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.67 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Lviv
0
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Ruh Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Ruh Lviv 2-0 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lviv see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 56%, Ruh Lviv 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Lviv and 22% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 44% of games; Ruh Lviv in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lviv's recent matches and 44% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lviv vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lviv's recent games and 22% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lviv and Ruh Lviv finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Ukrajina, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.12 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.19 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ruh Lviv landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.80 / defence 1.24, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 34% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 37%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 41%, Ruh Lviv 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lviv 0.94 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.