Lviv 1-2 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Lviv take on Inhulets.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Lviv welcome Inhulets to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lviv — All Games: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 2.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lviv have posted 0W 2D 1L at Arena L'viv — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 0W 1D 3L from 4 Premier League matches — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lviv at 0.50 PPG versus Inhulets's 0.25. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lviv register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Inhulets in 75% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Lviv trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Inhulets trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lviv 75% and Inhulets 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 50% | Inhulets 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.17 xG and Inhulets 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.804 / defence 1.260 | Inhulets attack 0.718 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.217. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Lviv games / 4 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 34% | Draw 37% | Inhulets 30%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | Inhulets 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lviv 67% | Inhulets 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 34% | Draw 37% | Inhulets 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Lviv 1.17 / Inhulets 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.804 / def 1.260 | Inhulets attack 0.718 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Inhulets xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Inhulets kick off?
Lviv vs Inhulets kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Inhulets?
Lviv 1 - 2 Inhulets.
Where is Lviv vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Lviv vs Inhulets part of?
Lviv vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 34% chance of winning, Inhulets a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lviv and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lviv and Inhulets in?
Lviv (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.25 | L5 D-L-L-D. Inhulets (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.80x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.98
37%
2.74
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.27
1.10
Inhulets xG
2.98
34%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lviv and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Lviv and 1.10 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Lviv have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 2D 2L record — D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inhulets's form line: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, 0.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lviv on 0.50 PPG, Inhulets on 0.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Lviv are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.75 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lviv have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Inhulets in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Early Season
Inhulets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Inhulets have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lviv's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
0
Draws
3
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Inhulets?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Inhulets have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2023, when Lviv 0-2 Inhulets.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Inhulets?
Inhulets have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lviv at 75%, Inhulets at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lviv) and 50% (Inhulets).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Inhulets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lviv's games and 75% of Inhulets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lviv vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lviv's recent games and 50% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Inhulets tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Inhulets defy the odds to beat Lviv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Lviv 1-2 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.17 xG and Inhulets 1.10 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Inhulets outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Inhulets attack 0.72 / defence 1.25, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 34% | Draw 37% | Inhulets 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Inhulets win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 50%, Inhulets 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Inhulets's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lviv 0.50 PPG, Inhulets 0.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inhulets win broke the near-deadlock. Inhulets scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.