LNZ Cherkasy 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (40%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as LNZ Cherkasy face Shakhtar Donetsk.

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Match Analysis

LNZ Cherkasy host Shakhtar Donetsk at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 11 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time.

Form Guide

LNZ Cherkasy — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

LNZ Cherkasy at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Shakhtar Donetsk's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shakhtar Donetsk are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

Despite the home advantage, Shakhtar Donetsk have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for LNZ Cherkasy. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended LNZ Cherkasy 1–5 Shakhtar Donetsk — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (last 52 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (last 52 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 48% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 42% | Shakhtar Donetsk 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: LNZ Cherkasy surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Shakhtar Donetsk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.936 / defence 1.032 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.119 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 0.887. Shakhtar Donetsk bring a tight defence (rating 0.743, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling LNZ Cherkasy's projected output down. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 53 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 52.

Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 28% | Draw 32% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.56 | Draw 3.10 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 50% (last 10 home games) | Shakhtar Donetsk 30% (last 10 away games).

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