LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 39%, yet in-form LNZ Cherkasy provide a compelling counter-argument — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Polessya travel to Cherkasy Arena to take on LNZ Cherkasy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.20 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's home record at Cherkasy Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cherkasy Arena this season.
Polessya — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Polessya have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 2.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. LNZ Cherkasy's 0% rate and Polessya's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 2 for Polessya and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Polessya trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 36% versus Polessya 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 26% | Polessya 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.92 xG and Polessya 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.978 / defence 0.726 | Polessya attack 1.243 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.215. Polessya's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Polessya have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 LNZ Cherkasy games / 47 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 31% | Polessya 39%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Polessya 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form LNZ Cherkasy (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 0% | Polessya 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 31% | Polessya 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.92 / Polessya 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.978 / def 0.726 | Polessya attack 1.243 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Polessya (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Polessya xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 3 Polessya.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 30% chance of winning, Polessya a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Record (5 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 2W | Draws 1 | Polessya 2W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Polessya (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
30%
3.33
31%
3.23
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.02
1.10
Polessya xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.6 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.10 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 19W 12D 16L from 47 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 10L across 47 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.47 PPG, Polessya on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 10W 5D 8L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Polessya's away record stands at 13W 4D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.40 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Polessya in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 19W 12D 16L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Polessya have gone 22W 15D 10L in their last 47 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.52 PPG; Polessya away: 1.87 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Polessya in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Polessya have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 30%, Polessya 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for LNZ Cherkasy and 39% for Polessya.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Polessya in 48%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 44% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 39% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Polessya in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.92 xG and Polessya 1.10 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Polessya outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Polessya attack 1.24 / defence 0.79, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 31% | Polessya 39%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 26%, Polessya 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Polessya's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.47 PPG, Polessya 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.