LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy host Livyi Bereh at in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy's home record at : 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Livyi Bereh — All Games: 1W 5D 0L from 6 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — LNZ Cherkasy at 1.30 PPG versus Livyi Bereh's 1.33. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Livyi Bereh 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Livyi Bereh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
LNZ Cherkasy in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (LNZ Cherkasy 0% | Livyi Bereh 50%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 17% | Livyi Bereh 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.07 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.956 / defence 0.872 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.704 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.082. Data: 34 LNZ Cherkasy games / 4 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Draw 36% | Livyi Bereh 21%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Livyi Bereh 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Livyi Bereh's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates are neutral: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Livyi Bereh 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Draw 36% | Livyi Bereh 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.07 / Livyi Bereh 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.956 / def 0.872 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.704 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Livyi Bereh xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 43% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 21% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh?
Record (2 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 0 | Livyi Bereh 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-5D-0L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 0.96x the league average against Livyi Bereh's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
43%
2.32
36%
2.75
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
1.74
0.67
Livyi Bereh xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.67 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 1D 3L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Livyi Bereh sit at 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (1W 5D 0L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.17 PPG, Livyi Bereh on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.67 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Livyi Bereh in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 5D 0L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
1
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Livyi Bereh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Livyi Bereh 3-1 LNZ Cherkasy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — LNZ Cherkasy 0% BTTS, Livyi Bereh 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for LNZ Cherkasy and 0% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 50%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 67% of games; Livyi Bereh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 50% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 0% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.