LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Kryvbas KR (37%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as LNZ Cherkasy face Kryvbas KR.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kryvbas KR make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kryvbas KR have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Kryvbas KR arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Kryvbas KR have the stronger record — 3 wins to LNZ Cherkasy's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended LNZ Cherkasy 1–3 Kryvbas KR — a Kryvbas KR win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Kryvbas KR have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 48% versus Kryvbas KR 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Kryvbas KR 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.01 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.963 / defence 1.192 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.890 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.025. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 55 games and Kryvbas KR's last 54.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 30% | Kryvbas KR 37%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.02 | Draw 3.34 | Kryvbas KR 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 home games and Kryvbas KR's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 60% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 30% | Kryvbas KR 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.01 / Kryvbas KR 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.963 / def 1.192 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.890 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Kryvbas KR xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 33% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 0.96x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (0.89x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 55 games and Kryvbas KR's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
33%
3.02
30%
3.34
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.10
1.09
Kryvbas KR xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.09 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 18W 13D 23L from 54 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Kryvbas KR, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 15L across 54 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 10W 4D 12L from their last 26 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kryvbas KR's away record stands at 14W 5D 7L across their last 26 away games, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 28W 11D 15L in their last 54 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.31 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.81 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 Kryvbas KR on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 50%, Kryvbas KR 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 42% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 38%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 46% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 42% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 65% of Kryvbas KR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at LNZ Cherkasy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 26, as LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.01 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.09 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kryvbas KR landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.96 / defence 1.19 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 30% | Kryvbas KR 37%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 43%, Kryvbas KR 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.