Livyi Bereh 0-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Livyi Bereh at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Livyi Bereh welcome Oleksandria to Stadion Livyi Bereh. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Livyi Bereh — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's home record at Stadion Livyi Bereh: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Livyi Bereh at 1.40 PPG versus Oleksandria's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Livyi Bereh's 20% rate and Oleksandria's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Oleksandria 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Oleksandria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (24 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (24 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Livyi Bereh 21% | Oleksandria 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 25% | Oleksandria 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.07 xG and Oleksandria 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.878 / defence 1.099 | Oleksandria attack 0.926 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 0.853. Data: 20 Livyi Bereh games / 51 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 40% | Draw 31% | Oleksandria 29%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Oleksandria 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Livyi Bereh at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Livyi Bereh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 20% | Oleksandria 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 40% | Draw 31% | Oleksandria 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Livyi Bereh 1.07 / Oleksandria 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.878 / def 1.099 | Oleksandria attack 0.926 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.224 / away 0.853 • Poisson stance: Livyi Bereh (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Oleksandria xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria?
Livyi Bereh 0 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 40% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Livyi Bereh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria?
Record (1 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 0 | Oleksandria 1W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Oleksandria (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Livyi Bereh's attack rating (0.88) and Oleksandria's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Livyi Bereh Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.20
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
1.94
0.87
Oleksandria xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 0.87 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Livyi Bereh's recent record stands at 7W 6D 11L from 24 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 2L across 24 games — 2.25 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Oleksandria by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Livyi Bereh heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Livyi Bereh have managed 3W 2D 5L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oleksandria's away record stands at 5W 3D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Oleksandria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.62 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 21% of their recent games.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 16W 6D 2L in their last 24 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.10 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 June 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Livyi Bereh's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Livyi Bereh
1
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria?
From 4 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 1, Oleksandria have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 9 June 2026, when Livyi Bereh 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Livyi Bereh 20% BTTS, Oleksandria 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Livyi Bereh) and 50% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria in 50%; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 60% of games; Oleksandria in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 30% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 50% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oleksandria defy the odds to beat Livyi Bereh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Livyi Bereh 0-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 1.07 xG and Oleksandria 0.87 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Livyi Bereh fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Oleksandria attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 20/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 40% | Draw 31% | Oleksandria 29%, with Livyi Bereh to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Oleksandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 25%, Oleksandria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.