Kudrivka 0-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kudrivka at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Kudrivka welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Avanhard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kudrivka have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Avanhard, Kudrivka have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Kudrivka have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kudrivka have won 1, Obolon'-Brovar 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kudrivka trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 55% versus Obolon'-Brovar 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 45% | Obolon'-Brovar 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 2.15 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 1.386 / defence 0.980 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.753 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.152. Kudrivka carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Obolon'-Brovar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Kudrivka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Kudrivka games / 31 Obolon'-Brovar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 66% | Draw 22% | Obolon'-Brovar 12%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Obolon'-Brovar 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Kudrivka (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kudrivka at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Kudrivka 60% | Obolon'-Brovar 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 66% | Draw 22% | Obolon'-Brovar 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 52% | xG Kudrivka 2.15 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 1.386 / def 0.980 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.753 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Kudrivka (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Obolon'-Brovar xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Avanhard.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Kudrivka 0 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Avanhard.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 66% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kudrivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (2 meetings): Kudrivka 1W | Draws 1 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kudrivka's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Obolon'-Brovar's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kudrivka Win
66%
1.52
22%
4.54
12%
8.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
3.00
0.85
Obolon'-Brovar xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
8.18
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
12%
8.56
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
1%
69.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Kudrivka and 0.85 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kudrivka come into this having played 31 games, going 6W 10D 15L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 0.94 PPG from 31 outings (6W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kudrivka on 0.90 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kudrivka's home form reads 5W 5D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Kudrivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (4W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kudrivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kudrivka are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.81 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Early Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 6W 10D 15L in their last 31 games (0.90 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 6W 11D 14L in their last 31 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Kudrivka's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.33 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kudrivka's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
2
Draws
0
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 3 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 1, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kudrivka 0-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar?
Kudrivka have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 67%, Obolon'-Brovar 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Kudrivka and 67% for Obolon'-Brovar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play Obolon'-Brovar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kudrivka's games and 47% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kudrivka vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kudrivka's matches and 67% of Obolon'-Brovar's.
Do Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kudrivka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka and Obolon'-Brovar finished level at 0-0 at Avanhard, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 2.15 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.85 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kudrivka fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Obolon'-Brovar landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.39 / defence 0.98 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.75 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 66% | Draw 22% | Obolon'-Brovar 12%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 45%, Obolon'-Brovar 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kudrivka 0.90 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.