Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kolos Kovalivka face Oleksandria.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Kolos plays host to Kolos Kovalivka versus Oleksandria in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Kolos Kovalivka's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Oleksandria (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Oleksandria away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Oleksandria edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Kolos Kovalivka 1–0 Oleksandria — a Kolos Kovalivka win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Kolos Kovalivka half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 26% versus Oleksandria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 22% | Oleksandria 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 1.01 xG and Oleksandria 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.748 / defence 0.941 | Oleksandria attack 1.082 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.277. Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Oleksandria's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kolos Kovalivka's projected output up. Data: built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 54 games and Oleksandria's last 55.
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 42%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.60 | Draw 3.33 | Oleksandria 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 home games and Oleksandria's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kolos Kovalivka 20% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Kolos Kovalivka 1.01 / Oleksandria 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.748 / def 0.941 | Oleksandria attack 1.082 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Oleksandria xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 28% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kolos Kovalivka's attack at 0.75x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (1.08x) against Kolos Kovalivka's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 54 games and Oleksandria's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
28%
3.60
30%
3.33
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.31
1.30
Oleksandria xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
8%
13.19
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.30 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kolos Kovalivka come into this having played 54 games, going 16W 16D 22L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.22 PPG from 54 outings (15W 21D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Kolos Kovalivka against 1.22 for Oleksandria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kolos Kovalivka's home form reads 8W 7D 11L across their last 26 home games, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 26 away games (5W 12D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.15 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Oleksandria in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 16W 16D 22L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 15W 21D 18L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Oleksandria away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.19 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won Oleksandria 4-1 Kolos Kovalivka on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
2
Draws
5
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Oleksandria have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Oleksandria 0-3 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 23%, Oleksandria 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Kolos Kovalivka) and 50% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Oleksandria in 38%; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 46% of games; Oleksandria in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 54% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 50% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 54% of Oleksandria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kolos Kovalivka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 26, as Kolos Kovalivka and Oleksandria drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.01 xG and Oleksandria 1.30 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Oleksandria landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.75 / defence 0.94 against Oleksandria attack 1.08 / defence 1.20, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 42%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 22%, Oleksandria 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.19 PPG, Oleksandria 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.