Inhulets vs Minai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Inhulets at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Minai travel to Stadion Inhulets to take on Inhulets. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Inhulets, Inhulets have gone 2W 2D 4L this season (8 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Minai — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Minai have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Inhulets 0.60 PPG, Minai 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Inhulets, 0 for Minai and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Inhulets in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Minai in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 41% versus Minai 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 47% | Minai 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.29 xG and Minai 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.892 / defence 1.128 | Minai attack 0.744 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.225. Minai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Inhulets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Inhulets games / 18 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 42% | Draw 28% | Minai 30%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Minai 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 38% | Minai 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 42% | Draw 28% | Minai 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Inhulets 1.29 / Minai 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.892 / def 1.128 | Minai attack 0.744 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Minai xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Minai kick off?
Inhulets vs Minai kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Stadion Inhulets.
Where is Inhulets vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs Minai part of?
Inhulets vs Minai is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 42% chance of winning, Minai a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Inhulets and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Minai?
Record (1 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | Minai 0W.
What form are Inhulets and Minai in?
Inhulets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Minai (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 0.89x the league average against Minai's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Minai's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.58
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.31
1.03
Minai xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.03 for Minai, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inhulets's recent record stands at 3W 4D 10L from 17 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Minai, meanwhile, have gone 0W 7D 10L across 17 games — 0.41 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inhulets on 0.76 PPG, Minai on 0.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Minai's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inhulets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Inhulets are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.65 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Minai in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while Minai have gone 0W 7D 10L in their last 17 (0.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Minai away?
Inhulets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.00 PPG; Minai away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inhulets and Minai runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Inhulets
1
Draws
1
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Minai?
From 3 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Minai have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Minai 1-2 Inhulets.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 38%, Minai 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Inhulets) and 50% (Minai).
On the defensive side: Inhulets have failed to score in 50% of games; Minai in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Inhulets's recent matches and 38% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Inhulets's recent games and 50% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Minai tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Minai in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Inhulets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 30, as Inhulets and Minai drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.29 xG and Minai 1.03 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Inhulets fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Minai landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Minai attack 0.74 / defence 1.31, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 42% | Draw 28% | Minai 30%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 47%, Minai 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Minai's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.76 PPG, Minai 0.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Minai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.