Inhulets 0-4 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Inhulets welcome Dynamo Kyiv to CSC Nika in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 3 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Inhulets stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Inhulets's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Dynamo Kyiv's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Inhulets have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Inhulets 2–5 Dynamo Kyiv — a Dynamo Kyiv win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Inhulets in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 9% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 31% versus Dynamo Kyiv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 35% | Dynamo Kyiv 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.50 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.518 / defence 0.875 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.353 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.041. Inhulets's attack rating of 0.518 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.50. Dynamo Kyiv bring a tight defence (rating 0.791, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Inhulets's projected output down. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack rating of 1.353, which lifts their away xG to 1.23. Data: built from Inhulets's last 26 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 56.
Result probabilities: Inhulets 15% | Draw 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 55%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 6.69 | Draw 3.29 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (55%) — a 25pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 28% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Inhulets's lower xG of 0.50 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.73 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Inhulets's last 10 home games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Inhulets 10% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo Kyiv 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 15% | Draw 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 28% (No 72%) | xG Inhulets 0.50 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.518 / def 0.875 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.353 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.50
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Dynamo Kyiv xG
28%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv FAQs
What time does Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Inhulets 0 - 4 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 15% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 55% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (72%).
Will Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Inhulets's attacking strength (0.52x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.50. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Inhulets's last 26 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 20.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (19.2%), 0-2 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
15%
6.69
30%
3.29
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
21.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
0 – 2
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.50
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.73
1.23
Dynamo Kyiv xG
6.69
15%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.61
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
61%
1.64
Win to Nil
4%
22.97
33%
3.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 21.9 | 13.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.50 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.23 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inhulets's recent record stands at 4W 8D 14L from 26 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Dynamo Kyiv, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 0L across 26 games — 2.46 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 1.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Inhulets heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 3W 2D 6L from their last 11 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo Kyiv's away record stands at 7W 4D 0L across their last 11 away games, a 2.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inhulets are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.12 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Inhulets (Home) vs Dynamo Kyiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Inhulets
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv Form FAQs
What form are Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 4W 8D 14L in their last 26 games (0.77 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 19W 7D 0L in their last 26 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.00 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Dynamo Kyiv have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 May 2025, when Dynamo Kyiv won Inhulets 0-4 Dynamo Kyiv.
Inhulets's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Inhulets
1
Draws
3
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Inhulets have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Inhulets 0-4 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Inhulets 9% BTTS, Dynamo Kyiv 54%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 9% for Inhulets and 46% for Dynamo Kyiv.
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 46%; Inhulets have failed to score in 64% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 9% of Inhulets's recent matches and 54% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of Inhulets's recent games and 46% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Inhulets's recent matches and 82% of Dynamo Kyiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Inhulets 0-4 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.50 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.23 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.23 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.52 / defence 0.88 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.35 / defence 0.79, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 15% | Draw 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 55%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 35%, Dynamo Kyiv 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (26 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (26 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Inhulets (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.