Kryvbas KR 3-1 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kolos Stadium plays host to Kryvbas KR versus Zorya Luhansk in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kryvbas KR have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kolos Stadium, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Zorya Luhansk (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Zorya Luhansk have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Kryvbas KR have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Zorya Luhansk managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Kryvbas KR winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Kryvbas KR and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Zorya Luhansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 45% versus Zorya Luhansk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 43% | Zorya Luhansk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.58 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.184 / defence 0.965 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.011 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.225. Data: 47 Kryvbas KR games / 47 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 46% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 29%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Zorya Luhansk 3.45. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 50% | Zorya Luhansk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Kolos Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 46% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.58 / Zorya Luhansk 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.184 / def 0.965 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.011 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Zorya Luhansk xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Kolos Stadium.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 1 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Kolos Stadium.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 46% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk?
Record (7 meetings): Kryvbas KR 5W | Draws 2 | Zorya Luhansk 0W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Zorya Luhansk's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Zorya Luhansk's attack (1.01x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.02
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.78
1.20
Zorya Luhansk xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.20 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 14D 13L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zorya Luhansk sit at 1.36 PPG from 47 outings (18W 10D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 1.36 for Zorya Luhansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 11W 6D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Zorya Luhansk have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 1.17 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 20W 14D 13L in their last 47 games (1.57 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 18W 10D 19L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.70 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Kryvbas KR go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zorya Luhansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
0
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk?
From 9 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 7, Zorya Luhansk have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Zorya Luhansk 1-3 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 48%, Zorya Luhansk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Kryvbas KR) and 52% (Zorya Luhansk).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Zorya Luhansk in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Zorya Luhansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 52% of Zorya Luhansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 52% of Zorya Luhansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zorya Luhansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Zorya Luhansk 3-1 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.58 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.20 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 46% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 29%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 43%, Zorya Luhansk 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.57 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.