Kryvbas KR 0-3 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Kryvbas KR (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Kryvbas KR face Veres Rivne.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne meet at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 11:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kryvbas KR have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Veres Rivne's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Veres Rivne's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Kryvbas KR's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Veres Rivne's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Kryvbas KR, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Veres Rivne — Veres Rivne have 1 win, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Kryvbas KR 2–0 Veres Rivne — a Kryvbas KR win.
The head-to-head data gives Kryvbas KR an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 48% versus Veres Rivne 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 46% | Veres Rivne 48%). Note also that Veres Rivne surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Kryvbas KR recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.56 xG and Veres Rivne 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.121 / defence 0.907 | Veres Rivne attack 0.868 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.035. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 46 games and Veres Rivne's last 47.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 54% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 18%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.85 | Draw 3.65 | Veres Rivne 5.41. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kryvbas KR's last 10 home games and Veres Rivne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 50% (last 10 home games) | Veres Rivne 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 54% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Kryvbas KR 1.56 / Veres Rivne 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.121 / def 0.907 | Veres Rivne attack 0.868 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Veres Rivne xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne FAQs
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Kryvbas KR 0 - 3 Veres Rivne.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 54% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.87x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Kryvbas KR's last 46 games and Veres Rivne's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.65
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.38
0.81
Veres Rivne xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
4%
25.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.81 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 26W 10D 10L from 46 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 18L across 46 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Veres Rivne heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 12W 6D 4L from their last 22 home games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Veres Rivne's away record stands at 4W 7D 11L across their last 22 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.11 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
Kryvbas KR (Home) vs Veres Rivne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne Form FAQs
What form are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 26W 10D 10L in their last 46 games (1.91 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 11W 17D 18L in their last 46 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Veres Rivne away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.91 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 12 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Veres Rivne won Kryvbas KR 0-3 Veres Rivne on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Kryvbas KR
1
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Kryvbas KR have won 5, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2026: Veres Rivne 1-3 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 50%, Veres Rivne 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Kryvbas KR) and 36% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 46% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 36% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 68% of Veres Rivne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Veres Rivne run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Kryvbas KR 0-3 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.56 xG and Veres Rivne 0.81 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Veres Rivne attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 54% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 18%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Veres Rivne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 46%, Veres Rivne 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Veres Rivne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.