Kryvbas KR 3-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Ruh Lviv travel to Girnyk to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Girnyk this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Kryvbas KR, 2 for Ruh Lviv and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kryvbas KR trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 45% versus Ruh Lviv 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 45% | Ruh Lviv 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.44 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.117 / defence 1.145 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.619 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.145. Data: 53 Kryvbas KR games / 53 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 52% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 21%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Ruh Lviv 4.76. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 70% | Ruh Lviv 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Girnyk • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 52% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.44 / Ruh Lviv 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.117 / def 1.145 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.619 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Ruh Lviv xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Girnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Girnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 52% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
Record (7 meetings): Kryvbas KR 2W | Draws 3 | Ruh Lviv 2W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 1.12x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.72
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.25
0.81
Ruh Lviv xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.81 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 23W 15D 15L from 53 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 25L across 53 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 13W 6D 7L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 7W 6D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.89 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 23W 15D 15L in their last 53 games (1.58 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 13D 25L in their last 53 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.73 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kryvbas KR have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2026, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
3
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
From 8 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 3, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 50%, Ruh Lviv 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kryvbas KR) and 19% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv in 31%; Ruh Lviv in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 27% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 19% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Ruh Lviv 3-0 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.44 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.81 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ruh Lviv landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.12 / defence 1.15 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.62 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 52% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 21%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 45%, Ruh Lviv 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.