Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Hirnyk Stadium to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
Kryvbas KR (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Hirnyk Stadium, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Kryvbas KR, 1 for LNZ Cherkasy and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 61% versus LNZ Cherkasy 22%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 64% | LNZ Cherkasy 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.42 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.116 / defence 1.304 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.729 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.092. Data: 36 Kryvbas KR games / 38 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 43% | Draw 32% | LNZ Cherkasy 25%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | LNZ Cherkasy 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Kryvbas KR 70% | LNZ Cherkasy 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Hirnyk Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 43% | Draw 32% | LNZ Cherkasy 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.42 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.116 / def 1.304 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.729 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.04
LNZ Cherkasy xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Hirnyk Stadium.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Kryvbas KR 0 - 3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Hirnyk Stadium.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 43% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (6 meetings): Kryvbas KR 3W | Draws 2 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (1.12) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.73x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 36/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.16
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.46
1.04
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
6%
16.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.04 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 36 games, going 14W 11D 11L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.86 PPG from 36 outings (20W 7D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 1.86 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy have taken 1.83 points per game from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.25 scored and 0.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; LNZ Cherkasy in 22%.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 14W 11D 11L in their last 36 games (1.47 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 20W 7D 9L in their last 36 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.61 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 0-3 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 7 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 67%, LNZ Cherkasy 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Kryvbas KR) and 39% (LNZ Cherkasy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 61%; LNZ Cherkasy in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 17% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Kryvbas KR's matches and 39% of LNZ Cherkasy's.
Do Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant LNZ Cherkasy run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Kryvbas KR 0-3 at Hirnyk Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.42 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.04 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR fell 1.4 short of their projected output. LNZ Cherkasy outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.12 / defence 1.30 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.73 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 43% | Draw 32% | LNZ Cherkasy 25%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a LNZ Cherkasy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 64%, LNZ Cherkasy 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.47 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.