Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi welcome Oleksandria to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 0 for Oleksandria and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 36% versus Oleksandria 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52% | Oleksandria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.59 xG and Oleksandria 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.968 / defence 0.900 | Oleksandria attack 0.824 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.224. Oleksandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 53 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 53% | Draw 25% | Oleksandria 22%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Oleksandria 4.55. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 27 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 53% | Draw 25% | Oleksandria 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.59 / Oleksandria 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.968 / def 0.900 | Oleksandria attack 0.824 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Oleksandria xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 27 April 2026 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 53% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria?
Record (1 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1W | Draws 0 | Oleksandria 0W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Oleksandria (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating (0.97) and Oleksandria's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.97
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.50
0.91
Oleksandria xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
4%
22.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0.91 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 4D 14L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria's form line: 3W 7D 15L from 25 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.00 PPG, Oleksandria on 0.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 0W 6D 7L from 13 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 0.80 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Defensively: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 7W 4D 14L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 3W 7D 15L in their last 25 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Oleksandria away?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 0.92 PPG; Oleksandria away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1
Draws
0
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, Oleksandria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 46%, Oleksandria 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 38% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 31% of games; Oleksandria in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 46% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 38% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria finished level at 1-1 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.59 xG and Oleksandria 0.91 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Oleksandria attack 0.82 / defence 1.29, drawn from 24/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 53% | Draw 25% | Oleksandria 22%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52%, Oleksandria 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG, Oleksandria 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.